I’ve just finished reading Donald Norman’s The Design of Everyday Things, a fascinating study of user-centered design from 1988, and was particularly amused by the following prognosis of what was to become the web:

“So, what do you think of hypertext? Imagine trying to write something using it. The extra freedom also poses extra requirements. If hypertext really becomes available, especially in fancy versions now being talked about – where words, sounds, video, computer graphics, simulations and more are all available at the touch of the screen – well, it is hard to imagine anyone capable of preparing the material. It will take teams of people. I predict that there will be much experimentation, and much failure…“

He wasn’t far off at all – there has been much experimentation, there has been much failure and there’s been a fair bit of fanciness. What’s really remarkable though, is where he wasn’t quote right – it doesn’t take a team of people (though a range of specialists will always be an advantage) – there are plenty of great web applications out there created by single developers.

Still, baring in mind this prediction was made about the time Bill Gates was supposedly telling us we wouldn’t need more than 640k of RAM – it’s not bad at all.